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India GDP Growth LIVE Highlights: No threat to 5.9 pc fiscal deficit target announced in Budget 2023-24 at this point, says CEA
31 Aug, 2023 | 09:31:17 PM IST
India GDP Growth News Live: Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient monsoon rains.
He also said that there is no real cause for concern that inflation would spike out of control as both the government and the Reserve Bank are taking adequate steps to maintain supply and keep prices under check.
The CEA said food inflation is likely to subside with the arrival of fresh stock and government measures. However, the impact of deficient rains in August is to be watched.
"There is momentum in economic activity in general and it is not driven by price-related distortions. Therefore our projections still are very comfortably placed at 6.5 per cent for the current financial year," he said.
Risk is evenly distributed to around 6.5 per cent growth projection for FY2023-24, he said while briefing media following the release of first quarter GDP numbers. Rising crude prices may warrant attention and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and likely tighter financial conditions can pose risk to growth, he added.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period.
With regard to fiscal deficit, Nageswaran said there is no threat to 5.9 per cent fiscal deficit announced in the Budget.India's economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the June quarter, supported by strong services activity and robust demand, data released by the government showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product expanded 7.8% on an annual basis in the April to June quarter, accelerating from the 6.1% growth recorded in the March quarter. It was also the highest reading since the equivalent period of 2022, when growth stood at 13.1%.
Meanwhile, India’s July core sector growth declined to 8.0% from 8.3% in June. The April-July core sector growth stood at 6.4% as against 11.5% in April-July 2022. On the other hand, India's economy in April to June likely grew at the fastest pace in a year, bolstered by central and state governments opening up their wallets for capex, stronger consumption demand and higher activities in the services sector, according to some economists.
On the other hand, India's fiscal deficit for the first four months of this fiscal year through July stood at 6.06 lakh crore rupees, or 33.9% of annual estimates, government data showed today.
The fiscal deficit widened from 20.5% reported in the comparable year-earlier period.
The wider fiscal deficit comes amid mushrooming speculations that the Narendra Modi-led government, which is seeking to return to power for the third term after Lok Sabha elections next year, will soon have to unleash various fiscal measures and particularly so as to rein in galloping inflation rate.
While the fiscal impact after the Indian government this week slashed LPG cylinder prices by Rs 200 per unit is seen to be limited as the move for now seems to only trim oil refiners’ profit margins, the rising clamor for the need to cut petrol and diesel prices may have an impact on budget gap. However, the robust surplus transfer of Rs 87,416 crore to New Delhi’s coffer by Reserve Bank of India has provided a big cushion and lifted non-tax revenues.
He also said that there is no real cause for concern that inflation would spike out of control as both the government and the Reserve Bank are taking adequate steps to maintain supply and keep prices under check.
The CEA said food inflation is likely to subside with the arrival of fresh stock and government measures. However, the impact of deficient rains in August is to be watched.
"There is momentum in economic activity in general and it is not driven by price-related distortions. Therefore our projections still are very comfortably placed at 6.5 per cent for the current financial year," he said.
Risk is evenly distributed to around 6.5 per cent growth projection for FY2023-24, he said while briefing media following the release of first quarter GDP numbers. Rising crude prices may warrant attention and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and likely tighter financial conditions can pose risk to growth, he added.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period.
With regard to fiscal deficit, Nageswaran said there is no threat to 5.9 per cent fiscal deficit announced in the Budget.India's economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the June quarter, supported by strong services activity and robust demand, data released by the government showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product expanded 7.8% on an annual basis in the April to June quarter, accelerating from the 6.1% growth recorded in the March quarter. It was also the highest reading since the equivalent period of 2022, when growth stood at 13.1%.
Meanwhile, India’s July core sector growth declined to 8.0% from 8.3% in June. The April-July core sector growth stood at 6.4% as against 11.5% in April-July 2022. On the other hand, India's economy in April to June likely grew at the fastest pace in a year, bolstered by central and state governments opening up their wallets for capex, stronger consumption demand and higher activities in the services sector, according to some economists.
On the other hand, India's fiscal deficit for the first four months of this fiscal year through July stood at 6.06 lakh crore rupees, or 33.9% of annual estimates, government data showed today.
The fiscal deficit widened from 20.5% reported in the comparable year-earlier period.
The wider fiscal deficit comes amid mushrooming speculations that the Narendra Modi-led government, which is seeking to return to power for the third term after Lok Sabha elections next year, will soon have to unleash various fiscal measures and particularly so as to rein in galloping inflation rate.
While the fiscal impact after the Indian government this week slashed LPG cylinder prices by Rs 200 per unit is seen to be limited as the move for now seems to only trim oil refiners’ profit margins, the rising clamor for the need to cut petrol and diesel prices may have an impact on budget gap. However, the robust surplus transfer of Rs 87,416 crore to New Delhi’s coffer by Reserve Bank of India has provided a big cushion and lifted non-tax revenues.
1 New Update
India continues to be fastest growing major economy
- India's GDP grew by 7.8 percent in the June quarter, despite government fears over the impact of higher consumer prices on household budgets. The South Asian nation overtook Britain last year to become the world's fifth-largest economy, and recently surpassed China to become the most populous country.
- Its growth has rebounded since the Covid-19 pandemic -- up 7.2 percent for the year to March -- and has remained near the top of the pack among the world's biggest economies. Thursday's figure was the highest in four quarters, with official statistics showing on-year growth of 12.2 percent for the financial, real estate and professional services sectors.
- But, like other countries, India has been buffeted by global headwinds including tightening global financial conditions, the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions. India's headline growth has improved despite residual global uncertainty, with the World Bank's India country director Auguste Tano Kouame saying in April the country "continues to show strong resilience to external shocks".
- The International Monetary Fund forecasts 6.1 percent GDP growth for India this year. "India is a country with growth -- very strong and continuing to be strong," IMF research department division chief Daniel Leigh said last month.
India, securing the status of fastest growing major economy, registered an economic growth of 7.8% during the first quarter surpassing China. This is India’s fastest growth in a year which was driven by services sectors. The expansion in GDP can be linked to center and states’ upping their kitty on capital projects, heighted consumption demand and increased impetus within services sector. Resilient growth would attract stability in overseas flows along with cheer from domestic institutional investors and this would act as a breather to Indian equity markets for the time being.
- Dhawal Ghanshyam Dhanani, Fund Manager, SAMCO Mutual Fund
Q1 FY 2023-24 GDP growth rate of 7.8% was led by growth of domestic consumption and investment activity in the economy, stabilising the potential slowdown due to receding global demand. Private consumption expenditure which comprises majority weight in the GDP estimates grew by 6%. Domestic investments as well have indicated some strength, as seen in 7% growth in GCF. Growth in investments is crucial for revival of the CapEx cycle in the economy which in turn is supportive of long-term growth. Additionally, a strong revival in the services sector which comprises 53% of the total economic output spurred economic growth in Q1 FY24.
- Vivek Rathi, Director - Research, Knight Frank India
India Q1 GDP Live: Another rate hike on cards?
- India Q1 GDP Live: India’s economy shined in its latest report card on strong services growth and a modest pick up in manufacturing despite still-high interest rates.
- Steady growth in the Asia’s third largest economy gives room for the financial authorities to fight inflation ahead of several state polls this year. The central bank kept rates unchanged for a third meeting and ordered banks to mop up excess liquidity while the government imposed export restrictions on some food staples.
- The impact of a cumulative 250 basis point rate hike since May 2022 and weak overseas demand for Indian goods may get partly offset by rising domestic consumption. However, the odds of another rate hike is building as retail inflation jumped to a 15-month high of 7.44% in July.
it is heartening to note the impressive GDP growth of 7.8% registered in the first quarter which was buttressed by robust domestic demand and resilient service sector growth even as net exports remained a drag on growth. The continuing robust performance by investment demand is particularly note-worthy as it augurs well for stimulating demand in other sectors too through its multiplier impact on growth. Going forward , we believe India is firmly on track to remain the fastest growing major economy for the third year in a row this fiscal.
- Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII
India Q1 GDP: Inflation risk
- India Q1 GDP: India's retail inflation in July rose to its highest in 15 months as vegetable and cereals prices skyrocketed.
- Due to weak reservoir levels, prices of commodities have to be watched, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said, adding that "there is no real possible concern inflation will spike out of control."
- Some economist have a different view and expect dry weather could constrain spending.
- "High food inflation for a prolonged period could weigh on consumption growth," said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.
GDP growth at 7.8% in the April-June quarter was hardly a surprise. Most indicators, particularly the government frontloading its aggressive investment target for the current fiscal, were hinting at it. This is likely to be the peak growth performance for this fiscal. Growth in the July-September quarter will be moderated by softening consumption as spiking inflation will dent discretionary-spending power. For the rest of the year, headwinds from slowing global growth and the lagged impact of interest rate hikes will play out. Additionally, if dry weather conditions seen in August continue in September, agricultural output could be impacted. That said, our current forecast of 6% GDP growth for this fiscal would make India the fastest-growing G-20 country this year.
- Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL
India Q1 GDP Live: India to clock GDP growth of 6.5pc in FY'24 despite rainfall deficit, says CEA
India Q1 GDP Live: Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient monsoon rains.
- He also said that there is no real cause for concern that inflation would spike out of control as both the government and the Reserve Bank are taking adequate steps to maintain supply and keep prices under check.
- The CEA said food inflation is likely to subside with the arrival of fresh stock and government measures. However, the impact of deficient rains in August is to be watched.Risk is evenly distributed to around 6.5 per cent growth projection for FY2023-24, he said while briefing media following the release of first quarter GDP numbers.
- Rising crude prices may warrant attention and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty and likely tighter financial conditions can pose risk to growth, he added.
- With regard to fiscal deficit, Nageswaran said there is no threat to 5.9 per cent fiscal deficit announced in the Budget.
At the moment, there is no threat to 5.9 pc fiscal deficit target announced in Budget 2023-24
- Chief Economic Advisor Nageswaran
India Q1 GDP Growth: There is a greater focus on expenditure management, says CEA
- India Q1 GDP Growth: While talking about inflation, the chief economic advisor, V Anantha Nageswaran, said that core inflation is declining and the spike in food inflation is transitory. He further said that there is a greater focus on expenditure management, and the fiscal deficit up to July was also driven by COVID-related expenditure, but the current account deficit (CAD) is well within the tolerance level.
- The slowdown in merchandise exports is partly offset by a rise in service exports, the CEA said. Several high-frequency indicators for July signal a good start to the second quarter of FY24CEA, CEA further added.
- On growth, the CEA said that the growth prospects appear bright, though external factors pose a downside risk, and investment and consumer momentum will underpin solid growth prospects for the coming year.
India Q1 GDP Growth: Private investment has already taken off, says CEA
India Q1 GDP Growth: Rural demand is on a recovery mode and govt's sustained capital expenditure push is crowing in private investments, said Chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran while briefing on GDP data. New investment projects announced by the private sector in the June quarter were the highest in 14 years. Private investment is not waiting to take off but it has already taken off, CEA added. While touching upon inflation, the CEA said that there is no real concern that inflation will spike out of control as both the govt and the RBI are taking measures to control inflation.
India Q1 GDP Live: CEA on risks to economy
India Q1 GDP Live: Rising crude prices may warrant attention; prolonged geo-political uncertainty, tighter financial conditions also pose risk to growth, says Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran
It is good to know that states are also joining the capex creation bandwagon that the central government has been championing for some time. Private capital formation is no longer waiting to take off. It has taken off. Overall, there is no real cause for concern about inflation spiralling out of control.
- Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran
India Q1 GDP Live: CEA on April-June GDP growth data
India Q1 GDP Live: Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran says India’s quarterly GDP growth towers over that of many other economies. The government and the RBI are comfortable in holding on to their FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5%.
There is enough indication that the construction sector will continue to expand in the coming quarters and years.
- Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran
Q1 GDP numbers (are) broadly in line with expectations, with a confirmation of weakness on the consumption side and with El Nino impact yet to reflect on agri/rural and discretionary consumption. But importantly, while from a year-on-year perspective this seems a peak for GDP numbers, from an absolute output perspective the numbers will actually be going up each subsequent quarter for the remainder of FY24.
- Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist & Executive Directory, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, Mumbai
India Q1 GDP Growth: Real GDP or GDP
- India Q1 GDP Growth: "Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 40.37 lakh crore, as against Rs 37.44 lakh crore in Q1 2022-23, showing a growth of 7.8 per cent as compared to 13.1 percent in Q1 2022-23," an official statement said.
- All activities like agriculture, mining, manufacturing, electricity, construction, hotel and transport, showed a decline in the first quarter of 2023-24 against first quarter of 2022-23, the data showed.
- According to RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC), the real GDP growth for first quarter of 2023-24 was projected at 8 per cent.
- The GDP growth recorded for the first quarter of current fiscal though is even lesser than RBI's estimate.
This pick-up in services sector activity could continue over the second quarter and would aid growth in private consumption
- Gaurav Kapur, chief economist, IndusInd Bank Ltd.
India Q1 GDP Growth: Services boost
India Q1 GDP Growth: Companies in the information technology, hotels and transport industries are expanding and could bring more business to the the services sector, which contributes to more than half of GDP. Double-digit credit growth in the financial services sector is also helping.
India’s GDP growth likely vaulted higher in the April-June quarter driven by a sharp increase in manufacturing, according to our estimates. A plunge in raw materials costs alongside increased public infrastructure spending, a raft of government incentives and geopolitical tailwinds likely drove industrial activity.
- Abhishek Gupta, India Economist
India Q1 GDP: Govt expenditure sees negative growth at -0.7% in April-June quarter
India Q1 GDP: April-June govt expenditure growth decelerates at -0.7% as against 2.3% in January-March and 1.8% in April-June 2022.
India GDP Live: Private consumption sees 6% growth in April-June
India GDP Live: India recorded April-June private consumption growth at 6.0% as against 2.8% in January-March and 19.8% in April-June 2022
India GDP Live: Construction sector grows at 7.9%
India GDP Live: India’s April-June construction sector recorded growth at 7.9% as against 10.4% in January-March and 16% in April-June 2022.
Q1 GDP Growth: Manufacturing sector disappoints
Q1 GDP Growth: The growth in the manufacturing sector decelerated to 4.7 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal compared to 6.1 per cent in the year-ago period.
Q1 GDP Growth: Agriculture sector reports robust growth at 3.5%
Q1 GDP Growth: The agriculture sector recorded a 3.5 per cent growth, up from 2.4 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2022-23.
India GDP Live: Fastest-growing major economy
India GDP Live: India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Q1 GDP growth: GDP grows by 7.8 pc in Q1 of 2023-24 compared to 13.1 pc in year-ago quarter
India GDP Live: India’s GDP grows 7.8 per cent in Q1 FY24
India GDP Live: India’s GDP grew 7.8 per cent in April to June quarter on an annual basis, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed on August 31, 2023.The growth can be attributed to central and state governments opening up their wallets for capex, stronger consumption demand and higher activities in the services sector.
India Q1 GDP Growth: IMF raised GDP growth forecast to 6.1% for 2023
India Q1 GDP Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.1 percent for 2023, up from 5.9 percent projected earlier this year. The upward revision came in view of stronger domestic investment.
India GDP Live: Key infra sector growth rises to 8 pc in July
India GDP Live: Growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to 8 per cent in July 2023 compared to 4.8 per cent in the same month last year on expansion in production of coal, crude oil, and natural gas, according to the official data released on Thursday. Production of steel, cement and electricity also grew in July, the data showed.However, the core sector growth was lower in July compared to the previous month when it was 8.3 per cent, the Commerce and Industry Ministry data showed. The output growth of the eight sectors was also lower at 6.4 per cent in April-July 2023-24 against 11.5 per cent in the year-ago period
India Q1 GDP Live: Services sector could fuel India economic growth to fastest in a year
India Q1 GDP Live: India’s economy is expected to shine in its latest report card on strong services growth and a pick up in manufacturing despite elevated interest rates. Steady growth in the Asia’s third largest economy gives room for the financial authorities to fight inflation ahead of several state polls this year. The central bank kept rates unchanged for a third meeting and ordered banks to mop up excess liquidity while the government imposed export restrictions on some food staples. “This growth print is likely to show domestic demand continues to propel the expansion, even as exports slow and monsoons remain uneven,” said Rahul Bajoria, economist with Barclays Plc.
India Q1 GDP Live: Factors that will determine the numbers today
India Q1 GDP Live: India's resilient domestic demand, government capital expenditure and a nascent revival in private investment supported growth in the quarter amid a global slowdown.
India Q1 GDP: Rupee falls 16 paise to settle at 82.79 against US dollar ahead of GDP numbers
India Q1 GDP: The rupee depreciated by 16 paise to settle at 82.79 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, tracking a firm American currency and rising crude oil prices.
Forex traders said that negative sentiment in the equity market and outflow of foreign funds also weighed on the domestic unit. Investors were also awaiting the domestic GDP data which is scheduled to be announced later in the day.
Forex traders said that negative sentiment in the equity market and outflow of foreign funds also weighed on the domestic unit. Investors were also awaiting the domestic GDP data which is scheduled to be announced later in the day.
India GDP Growth Rate: India's April-July fiscal deficit at Rs 6.06 lakh crore, 33.9% of FY24 target
India's fiscal deficit for the first four months of the financial year that started April 1 touched 6.06 trillion Indian rupees ($73.24 billion), 33.9% of annual estimates, government data showed on Thursday.
We expect GDP growth to moderate to 6.5% in FY24 from 7.2% in FY23 due to base normalisation, moderation in urban demand, uneven recovery in rural demand and weak external demand
- Rajani Sinha, chief economist, CareEdge
India GDP: RBI's growth rate estimates for FY24
India GDP: The Reserve Bank of India expects India to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24. It has forecast a growth rate of 8 per cent in Q1 the current fiscal.
India GDP Growth Rate: Barclays' Rahul Bajoria on Q1 GDP no.
India GDP Growth Rate: "High-frequency indicators for air and rail travel confirm continued steady demand in the transport sector, although capacity constraints, along with a catchup to pre-Covid levels of activity, mean some moderation in momentum compared with the previous quarter," said Rahul Bajoria, head, EM Asia, ex-China, economics, Barclays. The firm has pegged a growth rate of 7.8 per cent.
India GDP News: ET Poll on GDP no.
India GDP News: A median forecast of an ET poll of 20 economists pegged the growth rate at 7.8 per cent for the first quarter of this financial year that started April 1, 2023. The estimated range in the poll was 7.5-8.5 per cent.
India Q1 GDP: Services sector at 13-year high in July
India Q1 GDP: India’s services sector growth had hit a 13-year high in July, data from S&P Global PMI showed. ICRA in its report estimated that the services' gross value added (GVA) likely grew 9.7 per cent in Q1FY24 from 6.9 per cent in Q4FY23.
India GDP Live: Reuters poll on GDP no.
India GDP Live: According to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.7% in the past quarter, up from 6.1% growth in the previous quarter and its fastest expansion since April-June 2022. Economists say lower commodity prices helped manufacturers increase margins and offset the impact of 250 basis points of cumulative interest rate increases since May 2022.
India GDP News: ICRA's Aditi Nayar on Q1 GDP
India GDP News: ICRA's chief economist Aditi Nayar estimated the growth rate to be somewhere around 8.5 per cent. "Economic activity in Q1 FY-2024 was boosted by a continued catch-up in services demand and improved investment activity, particularly a welcome front-loading in government capital expenditure," she added.
India GDP Live: Sitharaman on inflation
India GDP Live: Nirmala Sitharaman, in an interview with ET, emphasized that although certain products might be facing inflationary pressures, the overall trend of "comprehensive basket inflation" remained stable. She highlighted that the RBI's focus was on addressing the specific requirements of the nation rather than aligning its actions with those of other central banks.
Sitharaman further noted that certain isolated commodities could be undergoing price hikes. Specifically, she pointed out that perishable goods and vegetables, which have short growth cycles, could experience repeated instances of inflation due to the prevailing monsoon conditions.
Sitharaman further noted that certain isolated commodities could be undergoing price hikes. Specifically, she pointed out that perishable goods and vegetables, which have short growth cycles, could experience repeated instances of inflation due to the prevailing monsoon conditions.
India GDP News: FM Sitharaman on pvt sector capex
India GDP News: The Indian private sector has initiated investments, and there is optimism regarding the economy's performance in the upcoming quarters, said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in an exclusive interview with ET. She expressed assurance in India's capability to handle any impacts stemming from elevated interest rates in the United States.
India GDP Live: Eyes on overall inflationary pressures
India GDP Live: The impact of the policy tightening is still in progress, and it is anticipated that this will continue to exert a downward influence on core inflation in the coming quarters. According to Jayanth Rama Varma, an external MPC member, during an interview with Bloomberg, the committee needs to stay vigilant for any indications of an increase in overall inflationary pressures or a reversal in the decline of core inflation.
India Q1 GDP: RBI and the inflation task
India Q1 GDP: The primary objective of RBI is to maintain inflation within a range of 2% to 6%. However, in the previous month, there was a notable increase in the consumer price index, which rose by 7.44%. This surge was particularly evident in food prices, constituting approximately half of the CPI, which surged by 11.51%. This rise was attributed to concerns about limited supplies due to adverse weather conditions impacting crop production.
Shashanka Bhide, a prominent member of the monetary policy committee, emphasized the importance of tackling food inflation. Bhide, in an interview with Bloomberg, highlighted the necessity of bolstering supplies in the domestic market and for social safety programs to effectively address this issue.
Shashanka Bhide, a prominent member of the monetary policy committee, emphasized the importance of tackling food inflation. Bhide, in an interview with Bloomberg, highlighted the necessity of bolstering supplies in the domestic market and for social safety programs to effectively address this issue.
India GDP News: Another climatic challenge "MJO"
India GDP News: India faces another climatic challenge known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a distinct weather phenomenon. According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the head of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the deficient rainfall in August can be attributed to both El Nino and the adverse phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation. This oscillation diminishes convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a weather pattern characterized by the movement of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure. This disturbance travels eastward across tropical regions and completes a full circle in about 30 to 60 days, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. Meteorologists Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian first identified the MJO in the early 1970s. It comprises of two main phases: the convective (enhanced rainfall) phase and the suppressed rainfall phase.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a weather pattern characterized by the movement of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure. This disturbance travels eastward across tropical regions and completes a full circle in about 30 to 60 days, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. Meteorologists Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian first identified the MJO in the early 1970s. It comprises of two main phases: the convective (enhanced rainfall) phase and the suppressed rainfall phase.
India GDP Live: The 'little boy' giving big troubles
India GDP Live: El Nino, a term signifying "the little boy" in Spanish, has emerged as a troublesome factor for India's economy. This weather phenomenon interferes with the normal monsoon patterns in India, leading to droughts and agricultural losses. Meteorologists predict that India could experience an extremely dry August due to the escalating El Nino conditions.
The ongoing monsoon season might turn out to be the most arid since 2015, a year marked by a rainfall deficiency of 13 percent. The influence of El Nino resulted in reduced rainfall during August, and its adverse effects are anticipated to extend to the rainfall patterns in September as well.
The ongoing monsoon season might turn out to be the most arid since 2015, a year marked by a rainfall deficiency of 13 percent. The influence of El Nino resulted in reduced rainfall during August, and its adverse effects are anticipated to extend to the rainfall patterns in September as well.
India GDP News: Inflation concerns remain
India GDP News: In July, the inflation rate surged to 7.4%, surpassing the upper tolerance threshold of 6% set by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This marked the first instance of such breach in the current year. According to economists, there is a high probability that this breach will occur once more in August. A recent survey conducted among 17 economists by ET revealed that the median inflation projection for the fiscal year 2023-24 stands at 5.5%, which is slightly above the RBI's own estimate of 5.4%.
India GDP Live: The LPG trend
India GDP Live: An ET analysis reveals that the prices of LPG had been decreasing prior to the reduction. The inflation rate for LPG had declined to 4.9% in July, a notable drop from the rates of 11.8% in the April-June quarter and 18.3% in the fiscal year 2022-23. On Tuesday, the government implemented a reduction of Rs 200 per cylinder for LPG prices across all customer categories, resulting in a cost reduction of Rs 400 for beneficiaries enrolled in the Ujjwala Yojana.
India Q1 GDP Growth: Lower LPG prices and inflation
India Q1 GDP Growth: The reduction in LPG prices is expected to have an impact on this fiscal year's inflation, potentially causing a decrease of 10 to 30 basis points. Economists predict that September could see a decline of 20 to 30 basis points alone. According to their analysis, the inflation rate might drop below 6% by September. It's worth noting that a basis point represents one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Gaura Sengupta, economist, IDFC First Bank, predicted 5.6% inflation in September. He said, "Our September estimate assumes a further decline in tomato prices and incorporates the impact of LPG price cut."
Gaura Sengupta, economist, IDFC First Bank, predicted 5.6% inflation in September. He said, "Our September estimate assumes a further decline in tomato prices and incorporates the impact of LPG price cut."
India GDP News: Govt spending on environmentally-friendly projects
India GDP News: The government allocated approximately Rs 18,400 crore towards diverse environmentally-friendly initiatives during the fiscal year 2022-23. This amount exceeded the proceeds of Rs 16,000 crore generated from the issuance of sovereign green bonds during their inaugural release. A senior official, referring to the most recent assessment, conveyed this information to ET.
As outlined in the financial allocation strategy developed by the finance ministry for the ongoing fiscal year, the capital acquired from the issuance of these bonds will be directed towards funding eco-friendly projects valued at Rs 23,764 crore, the official informed ET.
As outlined in the financial allocation strategy developed by the finance ministry for the ongoing fiscal year, the capital acquired from the issuance of these bonds will be directed towards funding eco-friendly projects valued at Rs 23,764 crore, the official informed ET.
India Q1 GDP Live: Rural consumption and demand
India Q1 GDP Live: Information indicating a decline in sales of 2-3 wheelers, sluggish tractor sales, and a slowdown in the production of non-durable goods is indicative of a restrained rural consumption pattern, as described by the rating agency. The agency characterized rural demand as being "weak".
Nonetheless, the report by CareEdge Ratings highlighted a few positive aspects. It mentioned the anticipation of a decrease in inflation during the latter half of FY24, which would enhance disposable income. Additionally, the report noted that both central and state governments' capital expenditure (capex) could stimulate private investments and lead to an augmentation in job opportunities.
Nonetheless, the report by CareEdge Ratings highlighted a few positive aspects. It mentioned the anticipation of a decrease in inflation during the latter half of FY24, which would enhance disposable income. Additionally, the report noted that both central and state governments' capital expenditure (capex) could stimulate private investments and lead to an augmentation in job opportunities.
India Q1 GDP News: Erratic monsoon and uncertain future
India Q1 GDP News: The monsoon season has experienced a lack of rainfall up to this point, and it is uncertain whether this situation will undergo any improvement. According to the CareEdge Ratings' report, there is a notable risk for the winter crop sowing, known as rabi, due to the considerable shortfall in reservoir levels across eastern and southern India compared to the 10-year average.
India Q1 GDP Live: Vulnerable rural demand
India Q1 GDP Live: The nation's rural demand remains susceptible and may face additional challenges from the combination of reduced income and elevated food inflation caused by an unpredictable monsoon season. According to a report published by CareEdge Ratings, the approaching celebrations could potentially drive up consumer demand.
However, the scale of this growth will be contingent on the degree to which the uneven monsoon situation affects the situation.
However, the scale of this growth will be contingent on the degree to which the uneven monsoon situation affects the situation.
India GDP News: Gender disparities and economic growth
India GDP News: A recent study from Moody's emphasizes the importance of tackling gender disparities. It highlights the potential for additional economic growth and increased incomes that could result from addressing these gaps.
According to the latest yearly report on the labor force, the participation of women in the workforce in India stood at 32.8% during the period of 2021-22. This figure is notably lower than the female workforce participation rates observed in both China and various Southeast Asian economies.
According to the latest yearly report on the labor force, the participation of women in the workforce in India stood at 32.8% during the period of 2021-22. This figure is notably lower than the female workforce participation rates observed in both China and various Southeast Asian economies.
India Q1 GDP Growth: What India needs to focus on for growth
India Q1 GDP Growth: The latest report from Moody's Investor Service highlights that countries in South and Southeast Asia, including India, must not solely rely on their population as the sole driving force. To harness the potential of the demographic dividend, these nations should prioritize investments in education and infrastructure.
The report also highlighted that the six major economies are projected to account for approximately one-third of the global population growth in the coming two decades. Additionally, they will make a substantial contribution to the worldwide workforce. However, the report emphasized that if population growth is not accompanied by sufficient job opportunities, it could potentially amplify these nations' vulnerability to social risks.
The report also highlighted that the six major economies are projected to account for approximately one-third of the global population growth in the coming two decades. Additionally, they will make a substantial contribution to the worldwide workforce. However, the report emphasized that if population growth is not accompanied by sufficient job opportunities, it could potentially amplify these nations' vulnerability to social risks.
India Q1 GDP Live: FDI inflows decline 34%
India Q1 GDP Live: There was a 34% decrease in the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to India in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, amounting to $10.94 billion. In comparison, FDI inflow during the same period of the previous fiscal year, April-June 2022-23, was recorded at $16.59 billion. This information has been disclosed by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT).
The cumulative FDI inflows, encompassing new FDI equity influx, reinvested earnings, and other capital, reached $17.56 billion, as opposed to $22.34 billion from the preceding year.
The cumulative FDI inflows, encompassing new FDI equity influx, reinvested earnings, and other capital, reached $17.56 billion, as opposed to $22.34 billion from the preceding year.
India Q1 GDP News: Pressure on Modi
India Q1 GDP News: The postponement in controlling inflation was expected to create challenges for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration, which is preparing for the upcoming national elections in May 2024. Nonetheless, implementing effective measures was a complex task, particularly during a year with a shortage of rainfall.
Monsoons typically contribute around 70% of the required rainfall to irrigate crops and replenish water reservoirs and underground water sources.
Monsoons typically contribute around 70% of the required rainfall to irrigate crops and replenish water reservoirs and underground water sources.
India Q1 GDP News: Meanwhile, Rupee rises marginally to 82.62 against US dollar
India Q1 GDP News: The Indian rupee exhibited limited fluctuations and gained 1 paise against the US dollar, reaching 82.62, during the initial trading session on Thursday. This movement was influenced by a favorable direction in the local stock market. Forex traders attributed the pressure on the domestic currency to the exit of overseas capital and elevated crude oil prices.
