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FII flows, Robinhood speculators & increasing SIP behind smallcap rally: Sunil Subramaniam
"All the SIPs over the last one year, from about Rs 12,000 odd crores in about a few months ago is now Rs 16,000 crore and that is a 25% increase. It has meant that it has been a good investor experience. Hence, this will feed into people increasing their SIPs even more. I would say that in a year from now, I would not be surprised if this SIP number were to touch Rs 25,000 crore a month. We would be really working on this growth pattern."
Sunil Subramaniam cracks the code of bearish trends and resilience
“Apart from the impact on FPIs, interest rate hikes could lead to a stronger dollar. For FPIs investing from advanced economies, there's a risk that a weaker Indian currency might offset their gains”
Where should you buy the dip in this market? Sunil Subramaniam answers
Sunil Subramaniam, MD & CEO of Sundaram Mutual, predicts rapid rises and falls in sectors such as IT, pharma, metals, global cyclicals, and energy. He suggests that declines will likely occur in sectors that have experienced recent rapid growth due to news flows rather than fundamental factors. Subramaniam also advises caution in infrastructure-related sectors, as the market may have overestimated their potential.
Looking for value? It is largely infra and cement, says Sunil Subramaniam
"Infrastructure and cement sectors offer good value in the market. He notes that the infrastructure sector is richly valued due to the order book and future growth, while the cement sector has experienced a price correction and is now undervalued," says Sunil Subramaniam. . However, he does not consider PSU banks to be undervalued, as there is always a discount compared to private sector banks. Subramaniam also expresses concerns about the metals sector.
Sunil Subramaniam on financial independence and very long-term investments
Sundaram Mutual CEO, Sunil Subramaniam emphasizes on financial planning for retirement and not relying on children for financial or medical support in the future, stating the socio-demographic shift from a joint to a nuclear family. He also recommends maintaining a long-term investment plan of 20-30 years in order to achieve financial freedom and drawing benefits of rupee cost averaging through SIPs.
Market will touch new highs before election; where to park money? Sunil Subramaniam answers
Sunil Subramaniam says he has a 40% allocation in defensives, including FMCG, IT, pharma and a 60% allocation in cyclicals, “where I put in capital goods, discretionary consumption including auto and housing, into the bucket. So, a 40-60 allocation.” He also says before election, "tilt towards inflation management and consumption will be key drivers in the stock market also."
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TINA factor: Sunil Subramaniam explains why India is a long-term destination for even FIIs
“Once you have a domestic focus, keep a broad market focus. If FIIs want to come into largecaps, somebody has to sell. Local players like domestic mutual funds, the domestic alternative investment funds, insurance companies will keep rotating that. I do not see a cause for worry in terms of wealth creation in India.”
Sunil Subramaniam on three key themes that will help India become world leader
The COVID-19 crisis has boosted digitalization and increased awareness of the equity markets among Indians, resulting in a dramatic increase in the number of demat accounts and mutual fund SIP books.
Sebi's move should help larger AMCs get larger share of investor-oriented direct business: Sunil Subramaniam
So I think the impact on the listed players would be minimized to the extent that they will benefit from larger flows, I would say, because their costs would be much lower compared to a smaller AMC.
May will see a sharp bounce back in equity flows: Sunil Subramaniam
The rate cut cycle, when it starts in the US there will be a slowdown coming. So what happens with domestic advisors is that when they sense this, they tend to move into small and midcap stocks versus large cap stocks
Sunil Subramaniam on SIP inflows, AUMs at 15-month low and more
“The MF industry has been seeing redemptions because people have been booking profits for their investments over the past years. Minus SIP flows, gross lump sum flows minus redemption, generally it is a negative number. That has made the AUM come down. Also, as the corporate capex cycle revives, corporates which had parked their surpluses have been drawing down.”
We may see a big shift happening from other asset classes into debt MFs by March end: Sunil Subramaniam
I actually expect that up to 31st March you will see a lot of money come into debt schemes because once you put in before 31st March you can hold it forever and claim indexation as long as you want
Indian investors have matured, not afraid to buy in corrections: Sunil Subramaniam
“A significant portion of the investor base now has experience of the equity markets. They have come in and seen the Covid period. In the period from March 2020 till for about almost a year, they were consistent sellers because the bad news hurt them and they realised that they missed a huge upswing in the market post Covid.”
Spooked by Adani pack, FIIs find comfort in safe consumption stocks: Sunil Subramaniam
“Internationally, there is going to be a slowdown but India is going to be a growth economy. And from that point of view, I do not think that growth not getting respect right now in today's market is going to be a very long lasting phenomenon. There is a temporary reallocation into safety.”
I do not expect this to be a populist Budget: Sunil Subramaniam
For auto companies also the results are coming out better because the commodity pressure which was there same period last year is not there this year. So there is a YoY benefit to the auto companies and auto demand is picking up and is strong.
Don’t sense any panic among domestic investors: Sunil Subramaniam
"Oil prices are holding up now because it is winter in the advanced countries. Post March-April, with the slowdown coming, we will definitely see oil prices trending down and from a retail consumer perspective, if the government passes on the oil price decrease, that also will be a boost for vehicles."
Do not look at short term drop in AMCs too negatively: Sunil Subramaniam
That's right, this is not a financially high leverage business but it is an operationally high leverage business. The annuity has to be recollected with penetration being so low.
Enough FII flows waiting to come to India to help markets give a positive return: Sunil Subramaniam
“We have a services fund and new-age opportunities are a part of that fund. Last year, when everybody was buying all this, I did not buy any of those. I bought only one or two of those fintechs during the boom there. Some of them I am buying now but it is not broad-based buying. We are buying it in those funds where it makes sense which is essentially the services fund. ”
In the land of the blind, a one-eyed man is king and that is the status of India today: Sunil Subramaniam
The scenario in front of us today with India in a sweet spot with the world going into recession, the corporate sector is bound to have an increase in EPS. I believe that the macro economic factors for India are also turning positive; GST collections have gone up month on month. We have seen personal income tax grow 40% YOY and corporate income tax grow 30% YOY.
Buy the dips! Investment and consumption in strong wicket for 3-5 years: Sunil Subramaniam
“Consumer durable sector and consumption have strong oil related inputs. Their margins will be healthy and demand will pick up in the short term on the back of a good monsoon forecast. But medium term, post Covid, pent up demand still flowing through means that investment and consumption, the two engines of growth, are in a strong wicket for the next three to five years. Every dip is a golden opportunity to buy at this point.”
Bad news of global recession can be good news for Indian economy: Sunil Subramaniam
“The IT sector during the Covid period turned into a growth sector. Historically, it has been a safety sector where one can expect a 10-12% growth. During the Covid they saw this huge opportunity and went up. It is now getting back to being a safety sector. It cannot have a free fall like the cyclicals during a downturn in the economy.”
Sunil Subramaniam explains the rationale behind Sundaram Flexi Cap Fund
“Strategically, for our company, this is the key because the largest segment of the industry is a Flexi Cap both in terms of flows and AUM and has been left as a gap by us. After the Principal merger, we left this as a spot so that at the right time we could launch what we will see as in the future the largest and probably the flagship fund for a fund house.”
Volatility will remain till FIIs turn positive on Indian market: Sunil Subramaniam
“While mutual funds are getting very good SIP flows, they are very steadily accumulating stuff that they believe will create value but FIIs come in and move the needle. So while the back will not be broken the volatility will be there until FIIs turn positive on our Indian markets”.
Will H2 be as scary, volatile and gut wrenching as H1? Sunil Subramaniam answers
“In the second half, the fears have come true in terms of the inflation, in terms of the rate hikes and while the second half will not be as bad as the first half, the reason being the recession actually because recession means easing commodity and oil prices which is good for the Indian economy. ”
Add midcap bank stocks with a 2-3-year timeframe: Sunil Subramaniam
“If you have a one-year timeframe, blue chip largecap holdings can be kept on hold. But if you extend the tenure to two-three years, then adding good quality midcaps would definitely add value to the portfolio because midcaps are generally more closely linked to domestic economic growth and that is where the future wealth creation will happen.”
People not prematurely closing SIPs; they are running them: Sunil Subramaniam
“The third category of SIPs is largely distributor, MFD, banks driven. These are generally of a tenure of five-year plus. 65% of the industry SIP book is of that category and there I do not see any challenge. People are not prematurely closing SIPs. They are running them. In fact in some cases, people are topping up their SIP instalments in these volatile times.”
Not a bear market, we are in a period of volatility; keep away from defensives: Sunil Subramaniam
“In the current situation, I do not think safety lies in safety, rather it lies in growth. So, broaden your allocation with the domestic focus across the space. I would still say consumer discretionary, housing and real estate, auto, capital goods cycle are the spaces one should be accumulating on dips rather than hide behind the traditional safety sectors because today safety lies in future growth.”
For salaried, SIPs still the best; HNIs can go for staggered deployment: Sunil Subramaniam
“FII selling is generally across the board. It is not coming and selling a specific sector. They are selling India and to that extent, we believe in good quality financial services banking stocks at reasonable valuations and that is what we are accumulating. Keep faith in equities because when the bounceback comes, it will help you with the gains.”
Confident India seeing funds flowing from hybrid to riskier equity categories: Sunil Subramaniam
“Generally there is an optimism in the market which is looking beyond the near term risk factors and I think that is reflected in the fact that people are moving out of safer balanced hybrid categories into more riskier equity category. This month, gross flows into open ended equity has been Rs 46,000 crore versus Rs 33,000 crore, a 37% increase.”Load More
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